Fearless Baseball Forecasts

In the bleak days of February one of the most welcome harbingers of the warmer weather to come is the news that spring training camps for pitchers will soon be opening. If pitchers are warming up their arms, can batters be far behind? And if batters, then surely opening day . . . !

Lots of questions tease the fan who looks forward to the season. Will Mike Trout suffer a sophomore slump? Will Albert Pujols recover the magic? Will the owners ever see the mindlessness of ten-year contracts?

But the niftiest thing for baseball fans at this time of year is that they now have a brief window of opportunity for believing that anything might be possible – even (is the temperature falling in Hades?) a pennant for the Cleveland Indians. By the end of May, of course, reality will have begun to set in. But until then, why not dream? After all, last season saw unexpected divisional victories for Baltimore and Washington. Maybe this year is Houston's turn? Or Pittsburgh's? Or Kansas City's?

Nah!

I believe in a cautious realism when surveying the future. And so, here is my forecast. (If – when – I'm shown to be wrong, I'll be as likely to bring the subject up as your favorite TV weather forecaster is easger to discuss his missed calls.) I'll start with the American League.

In the East Toronto will win. Management has added R.A. Dickey, and Mark Buehrle to its pitching staff, and Jose Reyes to its batting order. The team already has the best batter you've never heard of in Jose Bautista. Go Blue Jays! (The other big story in the East will be the collapse of the Yankees. Age will catch up with this team with a vengeance, and they'll play sub-.500 ball for the first time since dinosaurs roamed the earth.)

In the Central division Detroit will win big. When you've got the best hitter in baseball (Miguel Cabrera) and the best pitcher in baseball (Justin Verlander), and you play in the weakest division in baseball, success should be a snap. The post-season will be the Tigers' big test. As for the Indians, well, as Dodger fans used to say, wait 'til next year (or decade).

In the West I'm going with Los Angeles. Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton make a fearsome trio for any pitcher. But I'm not ready to count Texas out, and if the Rangers – with Beltre, Kinsler, Brkman, and Andrus – sneak past the Angels, I won't be entirely surprised. The AL West is, after all, the strongest division in the league and perhaps in baseball.

In the National League East I think Washington is the real McCoy. So I think they'll repeat atop the division. The Nats have a splendid pitching staff (think Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez) and a batting order that will combine able veterans with startlingly good youth (think Bryce Harper). And wouldn't it be great to have a D.C. team in the World Series for the first time in 80 years?

When we turn to the Central division I think we'll see another repeater. Cincinnati is rich with talent, especially in the remarkable Joey Votto. I suspect that the real story in this weakening division will be the fading of St. Louis. The Cardinals have lost too much talent in the past three years, and their basic mediocrity will finally assert itself. (A cruel but true prediction.)

Out in the West I forecast a Los Angeles triumph. (And wouldn't a Dodgers-Angels World Series be interesting? The TV cameras would use every half inning break to show the beautiful people who have secured front row box seats.) The Dodgers have Matt Kemp, who has triple crown potential, and a hard-hitting supporting cast – all that plus very good pitching. I admit it's hard to put the Dodgers ahead of the world champion San Francisco Giants, but L.A.'s pitching is almost as good, and their offense is much better.

So there you have my predictions. Pin them to the refrigerator so you can mock me next October!